Economy
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Economy (by John2 [MI]) Dec 2, 2017 5:51 AM
       Economy (by RB [MI]) Dec 2, 2017 6:08 AM
       Economy (by MJ [OH]) Dec 2, 2017 6:14 AM
       Economy (by Frank [NJ]) Dec 2, 2017 6:43 AM
       Economy (by WMH [NC]) Dec 2, 2017 6:43 AM
       Economy (by John2 [MI]) Dec 2, 2017 6:44 AM
       Economy (by WMH [NC]) Dec 2, 2017 6:48 AM
       Economy (by WMH [NC]) Dec 2, 2017 6:48 AM
       Economy (by Richard [MI]) Dec 2, 2017 7:13 AM
       Economy (by Plenty [MO]) Dec 2, 2017 7:17 AM
       Economy (by WMH [NC]) Dec 2, 2017 7:23 AM
       Economy (by RathdrumGal [ID]) Dec 2, 2017 7:29 AM
       Economy (by Julie [KS]) Dec 2, 2017 8:14 AM
       Economy (by Moshe [CA]) Dec 2, 2017 9:32 AM
       Economy (by Dave [MO]) Dec 2, 2017 10:53 AM
       Economy (by Frank [NJ]) Dec 2, 2017 11:08 AM
       Economy (by LisaFL [FL]) Dec 2, 2017 1:04 PM
       Economy (by Oregon Woodsmoke [ID]) Dec 2, 2017 1:28 PM
       Economy (by Oregon Woodsmoke [ID]) Dec 2, 2017 1:31 PM
       Economy (by David [MI]) Dec 2, 2017 3:11 PM
       Economy (by NE [PA]) Dec 2, 2017 3:40 PM
       Economy (by NE [PA]) Dec 2, 2017 3:50 PM
       Economy (by Smokowna [MD]) Dec 2, 2017 4:03 PM
       Economy (by S i d [MO]) Dec 2, 2017 6:36 PM
       Economy (by Landlord ofthe Flies [TX]) Dec 2, 2017 6:58 PM
       Economy (by Vee [OH]) Dec 3, 2017 4:51 AM
       Economy (by Robert,OntarioCanada [ON]) Dec 3, 2017 9:46 AM
       Economy (by Moshe [CA]) Dec 3, 2017 2:47 PM
       Economy (by Robert,Ontario,Can [ON]) Dec 3, 2017 7:39 PM
       Economy (by Moshe [CA]) Dec 4, 2017 7:51 AM
       Economy (by Pmh [TX]) Dec 4, 2017 3:28 PM
       Economy (by Chris [CT]) Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
       Economy (by Chris [CT]) Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
       Economy (by Chris [CT]) Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
       Economy (by Chris [CT]) Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
       Economy (by Chris [CT]) Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
       Economy (by Chris [CT]) Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
       Economy (by Chris [CT]) Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
       Economy (by Moshe [CA]) Dec 4, 2017 8:48 PM
       Economy (by RB [MI]) Dec 5, 2017 3:20 AM
       Economy (by Ray=N-Pa [PA]) Dec 5, 2017 7:05 PM
       Economy (by Nellie [ME]) Dec 6, 2017 6:35 AM

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Economy (by John2 [MI]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 5:51 AM
Message:

Seasons greetings! For the last 6 years we have enjoyed very few vacancies and when a unit did go vacant it usually was filled within 2 to 3 weeks. Over the past month, we have been notified by 3 tenants that they will not be renewing their leases this spring due to them buying their own homes. We currently have only one vacancy and over the past 30 day not one person has qualified.... is anyone else experiencing this? Any thoughts as to what strategies we should implement? Land contract etc? Should we sell sfh as they become vacant, due to the market being so hot? If we sell, we would be taking a chance that market would crash again to buy low and might not happen soon enough?

--24.231.xxx.xx




Economy (by RB [MI]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 6:08 AM
Message:

A lot of (personal) variables, here.

The day woulda, shoulda and coulda,

came to Town.

--71.13.xx.xxx




Economy (by MJ [OH]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 6:14 AM
Message:

First, don't panic. This happens, it is part of running your business. Not sure what part of Michigan you are in, but take a look at your marketing/advertising and re-evaluate. What are your properties like? Do they need freshened up to attract better tenants? Where are you advertising? Are you advertising to the better tenant pool? --174.105.xxx.xxx




Economy (by Frank [NJ]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 6:43 AM
Message:

Interesting situation and POV. Our last turn was like thst.a ton of inquiries and very few close to questions. The stronger economy may be a factor as people crawl out of near depression era we had --70.208.xx.xx




Economy (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 6:43 AM
Message:

It's December and the qualified people are hunkering down and preparing for the holidays, the winter...not wanting to move right now. Take the time to refresh the units and be ready to market for 2018. --74.110.xxx.xx




Economy (by John2 [MI]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 6:44 AM
Message:

RB- for sure! Lol

MJ- southeast mi.

Our properties range from B-D. Our rentals have mostly all been updated. We had major hail storm a few years ago and got new roofs, siding etc on all but one. Insides are all painted nicely with updated bathrooms and kitchens. The largest class B 4 bedroom is the most difficult to fill at $1,050.00. We advertise on all major rental sites FB, trulia, hotpads, Zillow &a Craigslist etc. hopefully it's just because of holidays etc. I appreciate your reassurance. --24.231.xxx.xx




Economy (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 6:48 AM
Message:

4-bedroom even harder at Christmastime, I would think. No one wants to move a bunch of kids at Christmas! In fact I would kind of worry about a tenant who WANTS to do that - I would be asking, "Why?" Unless it was a job transfer or something.

My kids have a duplex that has always gone empty in the fall/winter. Then this year it went empty in spring. They were AMAZED by the difference in responses and quality of tenants. --74.110.xxx.xx




Economy (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 6:48 AM
Message:

4-bedroom even harder at Christmastime, I would think. No one wants to move a bunch of kids at Christmas! In fact I would kind of worry about a tenant who WANTS to do that - I would be asking, "Why?" Unless it was a job transfer or something.

My kids have a duplex that has always gone empty in the fall/winter. Then this year it went empty in spring. They were AMAZED by the difference in responses and quality of tenants. --74.110.xxx.xx




Economy (by Richard [MI]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 7:13 AM
Message:

Just my opinion here. I feel we are near a top at this time for real estate prices. News sources say we have recovered most of the drop in prices since the recession. It's also hard to call the exact peak.

So, given these things, I'd sell the largest class B 4 bedroom place via a 1031 exchange if you have large equity and rotate the money into a class C fixer be it a single or a plex. Then I'd assess what's left. If you have several places, like 10+, I'd take the class B places that are completely fixed up and sell them one at a time and rotate the money to fixers. Then I'd take the class D places and do the same, then the class C places. Please understand that I mostly have class C places as I favor them. Ymmv.

Not that this is for everyonne, but I feel that once a place is fixed up and producing as much as possible, it has reached a peak. When I get a fixer, there is equity to capture by doing the repairs instead of just getting the rent. I want to capture and use that equity.

Now if the place sits in a location that stands to gain a lot due to whatever reason, I'll keep that one to try to get the extra return. As an example, I have a trailer on a half acre lot right next to an assisted living home. There is another assisted living home across the street. The one across the street just bought 4 houses right across the street and expanded their operation. I've decided to hold this property and see if one of these assisted living homes wants to expand into my property.

One thing I think about getting older is this: If there comes a time when you must go to an assisted living home, it is good if you own that home.

--23.121.xx.xxx




Economy (by Plenty [MO]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 7:17 AM
Message:

I've gotten some of my best tenants this time of year. Those that are relocating for job or divorce within the same school district. It's not that they have to move but that they are moving. Try a move in Special so your property is more appealing to they holiday budget. If the rent is $1000 make it $995. Try something. --66.87.xx.xxx




Economy (by WMH [NC]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 7:23 AM
Message:

Richard, our thoughts exactly (owning the home!) Working on it! --74.110.xxx.xx




Economy (by RathdrumGal [ID]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 7:29 AM
Message:

Sell. Home ownership is at it highest point in 15 years. The millennials are finally starting to buy -- even the Progressive Insurance TV ads have noticed. (Have you seen the "Are We Turning Into Our Parents?" ad?. RE investing is hot -- you might even be able to sell to CA bay area investors as a "turn-key provider" and continue to manage the properties. The Yuppies all want to buy but are afraid to self manage.

Use the cash you generate to 1031 into multifamily. --98.146.xxx.xx




Economy (by Julie [KS]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 8:14 AM
Message:

Everyone says the market is hot. Depends a lot on where you are. Because here it ainít. Last year we bought 4 houses in our preferred target range of $20K to $30K. Took 6+ months to get a contract on our last flip that is turn key with few comparable properties in fit & finish & priced under what comparable props had sold for the month before we listed. Itís like everything here ground to a halt mid-April. Nothing is moving. MLS hasnít changed remarkably here since Spring & what we look at is overpriced.

Seems the only constant we see is that there is no pattern to a vacancy. What rented easy at the last vacancy is difficult this time. I HATE renting this time of the year but it happens on a lease break. Just plug on.... --70.195.x.xx




Economy (by Moshe [CA]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 9:32 AM
Message:

Much depends on the US political future.

If the incumbent administration loses in 2020, then the economy will revert back to the welfare conditions of the past 8 years, wages will not increase, and life will be very good for landlords. Rentals will be active, while sales will not.

If the present administration, or its political successor, continues, the economy (stagnant for two terms) will accelerate, wages will increase along with inflation, and those who are positioned accurately will profit immensely.

--47.139.xx.xxx




Economy (by Dave [MO]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 10:53 AM
Message:

Locally there is a shortage of sellers and more buyers, so as some of my sfh become vacant Iím listing and getting under contract from 4 days to 30 days, and am enjoying the benefits. I also made 2 purchases and wholesaled one and kept the other, for a long term rental. Selling, when the market is rising, and Iím always buying if the deal make sense . I think the economy is good and will stay strong for some time. I do not see a bubble, buyers and most lenders are more savvy, and smart today and their expectations are higher than 2006. --72.24.xx.xx




Economy (by Frank [NJ]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 11:08 AM
Message:

Moshe - from you lips.......lets hope. Here in NJ in the recent Gubernatorial elections we got what you describe [and fear] FREE STUFF FOR ALL!! --173.63.xx.xx




Economy (by LisaFL [FL]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 1:04 PM
Message:

I'm listing two of them this month. I've never sold before so I'm excited to see how it goes. Tenant market is great but housing prices are high and I'm not wanting to deal with new tenants anymore. --173.170.xxx.xxx




Economy (by Oregon Woodsmoke [ID]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 1:28 PM
Message:

If you sell and convert to cash to wait for the market to fall, the market would have to take a serious tumble. If you don't 1031 you will pay capital gains and reclaimed depreciation. Taxes will take out a big bite, leaving you a lot less cash than the sales price. --174.216.xx.xxx




Economy (by Oregon Woodsmoke [ID]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 1:31 PM
Message:

It snows where I am and nobody wants to move during the holidays, especially when the weather is bad. Only evictees are moving.

I can sometimes grab a qualified tenant who is just moving into the area, but those tenants don't stay long. They just want a place to unload the uhaul while they look around and decide where they want to live. --174.216.xx.xxx




Economy (by David [MI]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 3:11 PM
Message:

I wasn't sure at first but now I know moshe is trolling for sure with the line "wages increase with inflation"! Well done!

As for SE Michigan, this is the first summer buying season I didn't buy a house since I started five years ago. House houses are back to their peaks pre-recession. But I haven't had a mass exodus of tenants yet, as best of I can tell, only one of the four moveouts this past summer bought a house. The other three moved but still renting in other cities. --50.4.xxx.x




Economy (by NE [PA]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 3:40 PM
Message:

Sometimes I sit for a week or 2, sometimes for a month or 2. Even longer at times. I don't care what Washington does.

I hear strategies and sometimes they work. When the strategies don't work, I hear my local mentor saying, "If it's clean and everything works and it's not getting rented, your price is too high."

So often his words ring true.

For what it's worth. --50.107.xxx.xxx




Economy (by NE [PA]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 3:50 PM
Message:

I guess thinking a little more about this, it's too big for me to worry about. I think it's too big for most average investors to worry about.

The "economy" to me is coffee shop talk. It's right up there with politics and inflation, whatever.

You must know your local market. Bottom line. --50.107.xxx.xxx




Economy (by Smokowna [MD]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 4:03 PM
Message:

I would turn to the teni who are moving out and interview them and gather their thoughts.

I think they will tell you the answers you need to adjust

(That sentence didn't come out, I need to get to some hot brownies...sorry for the rush)

I'll save you one --74.96.xxx.xxx




Economy (by S i d [MO]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 6:36 PM
Message:

I'm with NE. Even the "big boys" in my town who own 500+ units only know local conditions. Anyone claiming they know what's coming and how to reap massive profits is likely pulling your leg. --173.19.xx.xxx




Economy (by Landlord ofthe Flies [TX]) Posted on: Dec 2, 2017 6:58 PM
Message:

You don't have to be a fortune teller to decide if selling is the best option. If you want to cash in on the high economy, then offer a listing at a high price and see how it's accepted. If not, it's back to renting. --108.69.xxx.xxx




Economy (by Vee [OH]) Posted on: Dec 3, 2017 4:51 AM
Message:

I have 1 large place 4bd with 2full bath, large everything but good thing is it qualified for a window and insulation project by the city/county, it is empty again and we have done a thing with church where they provide the manpower to move in furniture and pay the utils so they use it as a retreat for traveling families, gets us great word of mouth advertising and a string of new unemployed helpers. Went open halfway in Nov. and already switched over with someone there Friday. I have done this rather than have homeless people come destroy a place. --76.188.xxx.xx




Economy (by Robert,OntarioCanada [ON]) Posted on: Dec 3, 2017 9:46 AM
Message:

The recession was a very deep recession where now as the economy improves more people have jobs where they are able to buy their own house. Still in the future must weather another downturn in the economy by paying off the mortgages along to continue to improve the rental units. There is always going to be turn over in rental units for the apartment rental units it is about one third of the rental units turn over every year. So it is matter of advertising on different websites then filling the vacant rental units along with being having the price competitive. Now is the time to look at what the competition is offering by going through ads then see what can make your rental units stand out. People have to have to place to live along with there has to be grocery stores. --207.164.xxx.xxx




Economy (by Moshe [CA]) Posted on: Dec 3, 2017 2:47 PM
Message:

More than economic conditions, the important variable relating filling of vacancies is supply & demand.

Here in Los Angeles, the housing shortage is so acute that I cannot imagine that ANY disturbances due to changes in the tax code will stop the rise in rents.

In fact, we now have a new challenge in CA to defeat a measure to remove the statewide protections from rent control, because of such rapidly increasing rents. I could probably raise my prices by $500 per month (per unit), but have been limiting my increases to $100 in order to keep from losing my good tenants. My eviction attorney (his firm boasts of 175,000 evictions) advocates that landlords raise their rents NOW while they can, in case this measure passes next year. I am exploring the idea of raising rents drastically while promising my tenants that I will renegotiate if the measure fails. While they are too smart to fall for that, I will have no trouble in today's market to find new tenants at the increased prices, but I would like to keep my old tenants at a price that will be fair, including to me.

--47.139.xx.xxx




Economy (by Robert,Ontario,Can [ON]) Posted on: Dec 3, 2017 7:39 PM
Message:

Rent controlled jurisdictions do not follow the supply and demand where the supply of rental units goes down to zero or a vacancy rate of one per cent. So as the supply goes down the price goes up. Why is it in a free market area the price of rentals is lower along with the quality of rental units is at market standards. In province of Ontario rent control is not a municipal but the entire province is under rent control where the government owned rental units are exempt or not under any form of rent control at all. Rent control was not designed to control rent but bankrupt the private sector then the government becomes the one and only landlord. The economy in Ontario is improving but the private sector will not building new rental units as the provincial legislated new rental units will be under rent control. --74.220.xxx.xxx




Economy (by Moshe [CA]) Posted on: Dec 4, 2017 7:51 AM
Message:

As you point out, Robert, as the supply goes down the price goes up. If thats not the law of supply and demand, then Adam Smith won't sell any more books (he's been dead for 250 years). That rules holds true also in rent controlled jurisdictions.

Some years ago, when rent control was a new idea, all sorts of cock-and-bull theories were promulgated. Now that we have experience with rent control, a more sophisticated and accurate analysis is possible.

Rent control has good intentions, namely to stop the acceleration of runaway rent prices. The planned beneficiaries are not merely renters, but the housing market as a whole, because uncontrolled rent inflation is not good for the market, only for individuals who happen to been in a position to capture a windfall. A robust market with increasing buyers AND sellers (renters and landlords, supply AND demand will provide steady growth, and encourage increased supply, increased demand and expansion of a healthy marketplace. Renters will find housing at a fair price and landlords will receive good profit for their investment.

Instead, rent control has shown itself to be a failure. It does NOT stop the acceleration of runaway prices, it inhibits the growth of housing supply, it dilapidates the existing housing stock, and results in a chaotic marketplace that benefits no one. The only beneficiaries are individual renters who are sophisticated enough to understand how to take advantage of these conditions, and that is not poor people.

Rent control in CA has gone through phases of liberals clamoring for landlord blood, followed by the legislature analyzing the results and reversing the sanguinity based on good sense and scientific analysis. The present threat is based on the referendum process, where the people gather signatures for a ballot measure, and popular voting can vote such a measure into law without the legislature's interference. I suppose that sooner or later, common sense will prevail and the legislature will correct such bad laws (again), but until then, I am considering how to position myself for the medium term.

--47.139.xx.xxx




Economy (by Pmh [TX]) Posted on: Dec 4, 2017 3:28 PM
Message:

I think Moshe that most here know that real wages have not kept pace with inflation for many years... --166.137.xxx.xx




Economy (by Chris [CT]) Posted on: Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
Message:

YMMV but between Thanksgiving and New Years are just about the worst time to sell or rent anything, especially in a colder climate. People only move this time of year if they have to.

Having said that a lot of people have to!

On another note I have scored some of my best deals this time of year. Sometimes the competition is asleep or on vacation when a bank decides to clean its balance sheet for the new year. --24.45.xxx.xx




Economy (by Chris [CT]) Posted on: Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
Message:

YMMV but between Thanksgiving and New Years are just about the worst time to sell or rent anything, especially in a colder climate. People only move this time of year if they have to.

Having said that a lot of people have to!

On another note I have scored some of my best deals this time of year. Sometimes the competition is asleep or on vacation when a bank decides to clean its balance sheet for the new year. --24.45.xxx.xx




Economy (by Chris [CT]) Posted on: Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
Message:

YMMV but between Thanksgiving and New Years are just about the worst time to sell or rent anything, especially in a colder climate. People only move this time of year if they have to.

Having said that a lot of people have to!

On another note I have scored some of my best deals this time of year. Sometimes the competition is asleep or on vacation when a bank decides to clean its balance sheet for the new year. --24.45.xxx.xx




Economy (by Chris [CT]) Posted on: Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
Message:

YMMV but between Thanksgiving and New Years are just about the worst time to sell or rent anything, especially in a colder climate. People only move this time of year if they have to.

Having said that a lot of people have to!

On another note I have scored some of my best deals this time of year. Sometimes the competition is asleep or on vacation when a bank decides to clean its balance sheet for the new year. --24.45.xxx.xx




Economy (by Chris [CT]) Posted on: Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
Message:

YMMV but between Thanksgiving and New Years are just about the worst time to sell or rent anything, especially in a colder climate. People only move this time of year if they have to.

Having said that a lot of people have to!

On another note I have scored some of my best deals this time of year. Sometimes the competition is asleep or on vacation when a bank decides to clean its balance sheet for the new year. --24.45.xxx.xx




Economy (by Chris [CT]) Posted on: Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
Message:

YMMV but between Thanksgiving and New Years are just about the worst time to sell or rent anything, especially in a colder climate. People only move this time of year if they have to.

Having said that a lot of people have to!

On another note I have scored some of my best deals this time of year. Sometimes the competition is asleep or on vacation when a bank decides to clean its balance sheet for the new year. --24.45.xxx.xx




Economy (by Chris [CT]) Posted on: Dec 4, 2017 5:29 PM
Message:

YMMV but between Thanksgiving and New Years are just about the worst time to sell or rent anything, especially in a colder climate. People only move this time of year if they have to.

Having said that a lot of people have to!

On another note I have scored some of my best deals this time of year. Sometimes the competition is asleep or on vacation when a bank decides to clean its balance sheet for the new year. --24.45.xxx.xx




Economy (by Moshe [CA]) Posted on: Dec 4, 2017 8:48 PM
Message:

Wrong, pmh.

Real wages have not fallen behind inflation for many years (at least two 4-year terms) because inflation (CPI) has been so extremely low. New administration has as a central purpose expansion of US economy which will bring both inflation and wage growth. Thats why runaway rental increases are foreseen, and rent control enthusiasts are back in the saddle again.

--47.139.xx.xxx




Economy (by RB [MI]) Posted on: Dec 5, 2017 3:20 AM
Message:

Someone is on their way to 3 star status.

--71.13.xx.xxx




Economy (by Ray=N-Pa [PA]) Posted on: Dec 5, 2017 7:05 PM
Message:

This past week, I had someone buy a home from me, I closed on a different place, I had too boot someone out of a SFH, and I had a normal move out.

Where things have been stable for me for a while, there is some shifting occurring more often. I am not sue if it is the economy or me though. Business is booming, but I have focusing on estate sales Direct mail has been good to me --24.101.xxx.xxx




Economy (by Nellie [ME]) Posted on: Dec 6, 2017 6:35 AM
Message:

Time of year is your culprit. Nearly always a late fall vacancy results in a vacancy until February or March. Great time to do significant renovations if they are needed. Revamp that bath or kitchen or other maintenance things that you might not otherwise have the time for. --64.222.xxx.xxx



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